This month we leave behind a decade characterized by unprecedented change in our real estate industry and the world.

During the past ten years we saw our industry boom, lead the national economy, and then implode.

Today we look outward on a nation whose economic system is near collapse, an unemployment rate hovering around 10 percent, banks collapsing, huge companies being taken over by the government, and security systems that don't work.

Technology, with the emergence of flat-screen, high-definition digital-broadcast television, the IPod, Social Networks, smart telephones, advanced, inexpensive digital cameras, ultra high-speed Internet connections - all these changes within the last ten years.  And you can bet that equally impressive and important changes will happen in the coming ten years... optimistically, changes for the better!

In the real estate industry, the change began on the first day of the new decade.  HUD issued a new RESPA (the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act) rule, effective that day, which changes the process of obtaining a mortgage.  The object of the rule change is to make it easier for borrowers to comparison shop for their mortgage, and better understand the closing costs they have to pay.

Among the RESPA changes are:

• Use of a new "good faith estimate" (GFE)
• A new HUD1 settlement statement, which adds a third page to the statement
• Restrictions and limits on which and how much GFE charges may change at the closing table, and
• Bundling of fees on the HUD1 by category or provider, allegedly to make things easier for the borrower to understand.

Are these changes good or bad?  Some say good.  Some say bad.  We'll just have to wait and see.

in another change in Georgia this year, now before a Realtor® refers a buyer to another broker they must do two things:

• Get prior written permission from the person being referred for the referral, and
• Include an estimate of the referral fee, if any, the referring broker will receive by making the referral.
  

What else might change in real estate in 2010?  Real estate gurus and prognosticators are saying this:

• Sales volume should be way up, compared to last year, particularly early on, due to buyers taking advantage of the expanded tax credit.  (Not sure I believe that, but we'll see!)
• Average sales prices may dip even lower, or stay flat at best, because foreclosures will remain high. (Signals continuing difficult times for sellers)
• Future foreclosures will be more widespread geographically, not because of the market bust, but because of high unemployment.  (Employment figures are usually the leading indicator of a bettering economy.  Watch them!)
• Agents will have to convince sellers to price their property realistically for this market.  (Duh!  Is that a change?  You bet it is!  And if they don't, the property won't sell.)
• Short Sales will get easier and less confusing because lenders will staff up and develop routine processes to handle the sales.  (I'll believe that when I see it!)

It should be very interesting to watch what happens in the coming decade in real estate... and in the world around us.  But the one thing we can always count on... The only thing that stays the same is Change!

How much confidence do Realtors have in their local markets?  The Real Estate Confidence Index answers that question.

The people who host my website, Point2Agent, conducts a monthly survey of its thousands of members across North America to determine how real estate professionals see the current and future market conditions in their respective areas.

The survey receives over 3,000 responses monthly from every area of the country across many different types of markets.  Respondents rate their markets on a scale of 1 to 10, showing their confidence level in local real estate markets over the short term (3 to 6 months), and the long term (12 to 18 months).  A statistical mean on the 1 to 10 scale is then derived which becomes the monthly Real Estate Confidence Index.  The Index is statistically valid due to the number of responses received.

The Real Estate Confidence Index (R.E.C.I.) for October, 2009 is 5.59.  This seems a bit middle-of-the-road, and one might say, "Yeah... half the country's confident, the other half isn't."  However, the Index is based upon real opinions from real professionals in the real estate field, and if watched over time, does fluctuate by State and economic conditions.

To those of us in Georgia, confidence is not great.  The Georgia R.E.C.I. is 5.08.  Georgia real estate professionals rate their confidence in the current market a 4.53, with improvement in the short term to 4.63, and the long term to 6.08 - still a long way from complete, or even comfortable confidence in the marketplace.

In the South, Georgia professionals are joined by South Carolina, Florida, Mississippi, Kentucky and Oklahoma practitioners with only low to moderate confidence in their markets.  Professionals in Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee and North Carolina exhibit a bit more confidence, but still hover only slightly higher (current index 6.3) than the country as a whole.

Survey administrators point out that "the Real Estate Confidence Index is a purely subjective survey, and is in no way intended to be an accurate reflection of current market conditions."  It is based on the opinions of real estate professionals across the country.  Even so, it's both interesting, enlightening, and probably not too far off.

Covington Georgia September 2009 Real Estate Market Report

• Active Listings        1024
• Pending Sales         126
• Closed Sales            79
• Week's Inventory     56  (Absorption Rate)
  

The "Weeks Inventory" indicates the number of weeks it takes to sell the current inventory of homes on the market at the present rate of sales.  Inventory level in a "good real estate market" is considered to be around 24 weeks.

Since Last Month's Report:

• Active Listings  DOWN 26.3%
• Pending Sales  DOWN 9.4%
• Closed Sales  DOWN 15%

Foreclosures:

New foreclosures in the Covington and Newton County real estate market were DOWN in September by 9.4% from last month's figure.  However, for the nine-month period, foreclosures are still UP 1.4% in the county over 2008.

The Average Sales Price of homes in the Covington real estate market in September was UP 31% over August to $141,031, and UP 7% from the same period in 2008.  That's good news!

It's still taking longer to seel our homes in the Covington real estate market.  The Average Days On Market of homes listed in Covington was UP 9.7% over August, and 12.9% over September 2008.

DISCLAIMER:  All information, photographs & content contained within this blog is the property of Bill Blair and may only be used with express written permission of the author or via the Active Rain "reblog" function, posted in its entirity with attribution to the author.

All statistical information used to create this report was obtained from GAMLS.  Information Deemed Reliable but not Guaranteed.

The Covington Georgia Real Estate Market Report - August 2009

Covington Georgia August 2009 Real Estate Resale Market Report

• Active Listings     1389
• Pending Sales      139
• Closed Sales         93
• Week's Inventory   65

The "Week's Inventory" indicates the number of weeks it takes to sell the current inventory of homes at the present rate of sales.  Inventory level in a "good real estate market"  is considered to be around 24 weeks.

Since Last Month's Report:

• Active Listings  DOWN 12.8%
• Pending Sales  DOWN  4.8%
• Closed Sales    DOWN  34.5%

Foreclosures:

New foreclosures in the Covington and Newton County real estate market were DOWN in August by 1.8%.  However, for the eight-month period, foreclosures are UP 11% in the county over the same period last year.

The Average Sales Price of homes in the Covington real estate market in August was UP 3.5% over July, but DOWN 22.3% from August 2008 prices.

DISCLAIMER:  All information, photographs & content contained within this blog is the property of Bill Blair and may only be used with express written permission of the author or via the Active Rain "reblog" function, posted in its entirety with attribution to the author.

All statistical information used to create this report was obtained from GAMLS.  Information Deemed Reliable but not Guaranteed.

Here’s a summary of what’s happening in the Covington and Newton County real estate market as of the end of July, 2009:

Homes in Covington and Newton County newly listed on the Georgia Multiple Listing Service during July totaled 246, down 34.9% from the same period last year.  However, pending sales in July were up by 32.8% over a year ago.  The reason is three-fold… July is historically a good selling season as families try to get resettled before school reopens, home prices remain depressed as opposed to last year, and mortgage interest rates remain low.

The average sales price of a home in our area in July was $113,323, down 17.5% from July 2008.

There remains a 9.3 month supply of homes for sale in Covington and Newton County.  We’re getting better, but a 6 month or lower supply is generally considered by Realtors® to be a “normal” market.  The absorption rate, or how long it should take to sell the number of homes available in a particular price range, stretches from a low 3.6 month supply in the $0 - $100,000 price range, to a 44.6 month supply of homes priced between $225,000 and $250,000, to a whopping 53.6 month supply in the range between $450,000 and $500,000.

New foreclosures coming on the market continues to be one of the largest problems in our local real estate market.  Even though sales of homes have improved recently, the numbers of foreclosed homes continues to add to our existing inventory and keep home prices depressed.  Today’s "Covington News" legal section contained 32 pages of new foreclosures coming onto the market… not an unusual occurrence.

There were 54 foreclosed homes which arrived on the market in July, bringing our yearly total for 2009 to 476.  Unfortunately, that keeps us about on track with 2008, during which we saw 790 foreclosures in the County.  Newton County was cited last week in the "AJC" as having one of the highest foreclosure rates in the state.  Unfortunately, that statistic does not seem to be abating.

Although we can’t compare Newton to our surrounding counties due to different urban and rural characteristics, population concentrations, median incomes, etc., it’s still interesting to note that Butts County had 7 foreclosures in July and 54 for the year to date, Henry County had 144 for the month and 884 year-to-date, Jasper County had 1 and 15, Morgan County 6 and 21, Rockdale County 46 and 318, and Walton County 51 foreclosures in July and 316 for 2009 thus far.

If you have questions or comments, or would like more detailed information on the real estate market in Covington and Newton County Georgia, just let me know.

When I checked my email late last night, I had a message from U.S. Senator Johnny Isakson's (R-Ga.) office about a new bill he introduced called the Fix Housing First Homebuyer Tax Credit Act to expand the homebuyer tax credit passed by Congress last year.

Considering the provisions of Senator Isakson's bill and his speech to colleagues on the Senate floor about the bill, I think someone has finally gotten this thing figured out!

Senator Isakson has already met with President Obama's team, explaining the bill and urging their support, and told his Senate colleagues of his hope that they will... "embrace this concept of incentivizing the housing market so we can stabilize values, stop the continuing erosion of equity, and begin to reflate - not inflate but reflate - the housing market.

What the bill proposes is repeal of the "now-you-see-it / now-you-don't" $7500 tax credit for first-time homebuyers passed last year, and replacing it with a tax credit between $10,000 and $22,000 for every home buyer.  The tax credit for this year could even be claimed against 2008 income taxes, immediately incentivizing the marketplace.

Why did Senator Isakson introduce the bill?  He believes the deployment of the first half of TARP money meant to stabilize the banking system, ease consumer credit, and help the housing market has had disappointing results.  "While it probably did stabilize the banking system, there has yet to be a loosening of credit and there has yet to be a recovery in the housing market," Senator Isakson said.  And throwing the remainder of the $750 billion TARP allocation into the market without specific plans and directions for its use would only be addressing the ... "symptoms of a serious illness rather than treat (ing) the illness."

Having been in the real estate business for over 30 years, Isakson was around during the collapse of the housing market in 1974 - one even worse than the current situation.  At that time, President Gerald Ford and Congress passed a tax credit bill for families buying and occupying a home from the standing 3-year inventory of homes on the market.  "Within 1 year's time, which was the limited time of the tax credit, two-thirds of the housing inventory on the market was sold, values stopped declining and started improving, and we had a stabilization of our economy, the end of a recessionary period, and the beginning of prosperity," according to Isakson.

I believe Isakson is right when he states, "...the housing market led us in; the housing market will lead us out.  It is time for us to fix housing first."  But he faces an uphill battle.  Not only does he have to convince the current administration and his colleagues on both sides of the isle, but the Barney Frank(s), Christopher Dodd(s) and Nancy Pelosi(s) of the world who got us into this housing and economic crisis in the first place.

For more information about the current housing crisis and its effect on current economic conditions, read the text of Senator Isakson's speech to the U.S. Senate and my blog, "Six Degrees of Separation."  Your comments are always welcome.

With the current state of the economy in the U.S., fueled for the past several years by the housing market, it's probably no big surprise that 2008 was not a stellar year in real estate in Covington and Newton County.

Here's how the year ended in Newton County, according to statistics drawn from the Georgia Multiple Listing Service (GAMLS).

A total of 1355 single family homes sold in Newton County during 2008, a decrease of almost 400 from those sold in 2007. 

Total Sales volume in December 2008 was almost $8 million less than in January.  And the average sales price during that period dropped by over $43,000 per home, on average.

New homes were hardest hit with only 328 new homes selling during 2008.  It took an average of 6.5 months to sell each of those new homes, and there's still a 14.3 month supply of newly constructed homes on the market in the county.

There were 779 single family property foreclosures during the year.  But, they were not just low-cost and starter homes.  These foreclosures can be found at virtually every price point and in most neighborhoods county wide.

Will 2009 be a better year in the housing market?  With unemployment in metro-Atlanta standing at 7% and expected to rise during 2009, it's hard to say.  But housing is the key to economic recovery in this area overall, and unemployment usually lags the start of recovery.  So watch the housing market this year to see how our economy is doing.

The good news in all of this is that it's still a great time to buy a home, especially if you're in a position of not having to sell before you buy.  There is ample mortgage money available for new loans for those with good credit at some of the lowest interest rates in years.  And there are plenty of homes on the market for you to choose from - 1862 active single family home listings in Newton County today - at better prices than you're likely to find for years to come.

If you have a home to sell, give it a try.  It costs you nothing until the home is sold, so you have nothing to loose.  And if you sell for less than you'd like, be assured that you'll be buying for a lot less than you would expect also!

If you have a home to sell, contact us, "Your Traditional Neighborhood Specialists," by either phone, email or text message.  We'll be glad to advise you on things you can do sell your home faster in this market.

And if you're looking for a new home, we have access to hundreds of new, bank-owned and foreclosed properties throughout Covington, Newton and the surrounding counties.  Call or text 770-337-5262 or 404-925-3676, or email billblair@bellsouth.net.  We'll make it work for you!